Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指重心料將繼續下移

Monday, December 19, 2022 Views2807

上周指出恆指逼近20000大關,料有一定阻力,加上市場觀望聯儲局議息結果,預料恆指在聯儲局議息前將先回調整固(支持位看19200-19400),待聯儲局議息後形勢有利,才上試20000大關.結果聯儲局一如預期加息0.5厘,但點陣圖顯示官員預測來年利率中值由4.6厘上調至5.1厘,加上聯儲局主席鮑威爾更暗示最終利率預期或再上調,令美股受壓,港股亦隨之走軟,恆指在上周五最低見到19131,收報19451,相對前周下跌了450點,跌幅2.3%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指和科指按周分別下跌2.9%和5.1%,亦都結束了連續兩周的升勢.

美股方面,道指,納指和標準普爾500指數均連跌兩周,周跌幅分別為1.7%,2.1%和2.7%.投資者除了擔心聯儲局加息時間比預期長外,還對經濟前景感到憂慮.上周公布的美國經濟數據大都差於預期,如11月份工業生產按月下跌0.2%,預期為無起跌;11月份先期零售銷售按月下跌0.6%,預期跌幅為0.2%;12月份Markit製造業採購經理指數由11月份的47.7下降至46.2,低於預期的47.8;12月份服務業採購經理指數由11月份46.2下降至44.4,低於預期的46.5.

A股上周亦表現偏軟,上證綜指,深證成指和滬深300按周分別下跌1.2%,1.8%和1.1%.上周公布的宏觀經濟數據表現疲軟,11月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長2.2%,增速比10月份下降2.8個百分點;1-11月份全國固定資產投資同比增長5.3%,增速比1-10月份下降0.5個百分點;其中,全國房地產開發投資同比下降9.8%,降幅比1-10月份擴大個百分點;11月份社會消費品零售總額同比下降5.9%,跌幅較10月份擴大5.4個百分點.

說回港股,恆指未能上破19900,低位有下移態勢,並見跌穿10天線.本周重心料會繼續下移,波動區間看19000-19700.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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