Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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為上試100天線作準備

Monday, November 21, 2022 Views2402

上周評論指出,恆指在重越50天線後或會先作出整固,在證實企穩50天線後再圖回補10月初的兩個下跌裂口,其中一個下跌裂口闊269點,介於17718和17449之間.另一個下跌裂口闊76點,介於17958和17882之間.結果恆指不需要多作整固便直撲18000,上周三最高見到18414,不僅一舉補回上述兩個下跌裂口,還補回9月22日的下跌裂口的一部分.該下跌裂口闊240點,介於18435和18195之間.恆指上周五收報17993,相對前周上升了667點,升幅3.8%.國指和科指按周分別上升4.4%和7.2%.

A股方面,上周公布的宏觀經濟數據基本上差於市場預期,主要由於國內新冠疫情激增和房地產市場的進一步下滑,以及外部需求疫軟,繼續對經濟造成影響.其中,10月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長5%,增幅比9月份下降1.3個百分點.1-10月份全國固定資產投資同比增長5.8%,增幅較1-9月份下降0.1個百分點,主要由於1-10月份全國房地產開發投資同比下降8.8%,降幅較1-9月份擴大0.8個百分點.10月份社會消費品零售總額更由正轉負,同比下降0.5%,9月份為上升2.5%.另一方面,中國債市上周大跌.據分析,其中一個原因是權益市場回暖,加上地產支持政策等因素,促使資金由債市轉流入股市,上證綜指,深證成指和滬深300按周均上升約0.3%.

美股方面,上周公布的經濟數據都好於預期,如10月份零售銷售按月增長1.3%,高於市場預期的1%,是八個月來最大增幅,顯示在高通脹挑戰下,消費需求依然強勁.另一方面,美國上星期新申領失業救濟人數按周減少4000人至22.2萬人,低於市場預期,顯示美國勞工市場依然強勁,疊加聖路易斯和波士頓聯儲銀行行長齊齊放鷹,揚言加息幅度未夠,為美股帶來沽售壓力,道指按周下跌約0.1%,標準普爾500指數和納指分別下跌0.7%和1.6%.

說回港股,現時恆指似在17500和18500之間形成整固旗形,為進一步上試100天線作準備,該線現時大約處於18700水平.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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