Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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以黃金比率推算恆指下行目標

Monday, May 29, 2023 Views2152

上周評論指出,恆指這次下破250天線,恐怕是"狼來了"來真的,因此預計恆指將補回今年3月22日的上升裂口(該上升裂口闊132點,介於19296和10428之間),並將下試19000點.結果不幸言中,恆指在上周四最低見到18621,為去年12月2日以來的最低位,收報18747,相對前周下跌了704點,跌幅3.6%,是連續第三周下跌.國指亦連跌三周,周跌幅為3.9%.科指更是連跌八周,周跌幅為3.4%.

美股上周表現反覆,債務上限談判繼續左右著市況.道指按周下跌1%,但標普500和納指按周卻分別上升0.3%和2.5%.雖然談判仍未達成協議,但據報雙方分歧進一步收窄,包括接近同意未來兩年提高債務上限,同時削減政府開支.同時,美國財長耶倫將美國最早可能出現債務違約的日子推遲至下月5日,令談判代表獲得更多喘息空間.不過,聯儲局官員卻持續放鷹,加上最新的物價數據顯示,美國通脹仍然高居不下,聯儲局可能繼續加息.其中,4月份PCE物價指數按年和按月分別上升4.4%和0.4%,高於3月份的4.2%同比升幅和0.1%環比升幅,亦高於市場預期的4.3%同比升幅和0.3%環比升幅.聯儲局最關注的核心PCE物價指數按年和按月分別上升4.7%和0.4%,均高於3月份的4.6%同比升幅和0.3%環比升幅,亦高於市場預期的4.6%同比升幅和0.3%環比升幅.數據公布後,6月聯儲局再加息四分一厘的機率由數據公布前的四成上升至六成.

說回港股,恆指跌穿了19500-20800的波動區間,量度下跌目標大概可見18200.另外,如以黃金比率推算下行目標,如調整由去年10月低位14597升至今年高位22701整個升浪的一半,恆指將見18649.事實上,恆指上周四已見到此調整目標.如果繼續下行,調整上述升浪的0.618,恆指將見17700.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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