Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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大市似在醞釀築底

Monday, March 20, 2023 Views1793

上周評論指出,恆指250天線失守後,料會下試100天線,而初次下試100天線,料會見到支持而作出反彈,但先前低位19800將成為回升阻力位.結果恆指在上周一最高回升至19792,剛好受制於19800的阻力.其後受到美國矽谷銀行倒閉及瑞士信貸出現流動性問題等負面因素影響,兩度下破100天線,上周四最低見到19110,周五收報19519,相對前周反而上升了199點,升幅1%.國指和科指上周亦呈現先跌後穩態勢,按周分別上升了2.6%和5.2%.


滬深股市上周表現分化,上證綜指按周上升0.6%,但滬深300和深證成指按周卻分別下跌0.2%和1.4%.上周中國公布了一系列宏觀經濟數據,其中,1-2月份全國固定資產投資按年增長5.5%,高於市場預期的4.5%增幅;1-2月份社會消費品零售總額按年增長3.5%,符合預期;1-2月份全國規模以上工業增加值按年增長2.4%,不及市場預期.數據反映經濟有所改善,但復甦步伐不強勁.

美股方面,受矽谷銀行倒閉事件影響,市況大幅波動,道指在上周三最低見到31429,周四重越32000,但周五又跌穿32000,收報31861,按周微跌0.15%.至於標準普爾500指數和納指,按周分別上升1.4%和4.4%,主要由於市場憧憬矽谷銀行倒閉事件會促使聯儲局減慢加息步伐,今周議息很大機會只加息0.25厘甚或不加.經濟數據方面,美國2月份消費物價指數(CPI)按年升幅由1月的6.4%放慢至6%,按月升幅亦由1月的0.5%放緩至0.4%,亦有助紓緩市場的加息憂慮.

說回港股,恆指上周雖再創年內新低,但9天相對強弱指數已呈現底背馳;100天線雖兩度失守,但都能迅速收復.值得注意的是,一向表現弱勢的科技指數,也呈現底背馳,而且在前周創出年內新低後,上周竟然沒有再創新低.相信恆指可能正在醞釀築底,若再下試19110不破,並能掉頭回升上越19800,這一波自去年1月高位22701展開的調整浪應告一段落.

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