Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

上試22900-23000

Monday, January 30, 2023 Views1942

踏入兔年,首先祝大家萬事如意,財源廣進,身體健康。港股在兔年有個不錯的開局,上周四兔年首個交易日紅盤高開高收,在缺乏北水的情況下,大市成交仍超過1200億。周五市況繼續上揚,恆指最高見到22701,收報22689,相對前周上升了644點,升幅2.9%,是連續第六周上升.國指亦連升六周,周升幅為3.9%。科指周升幅達到5.3%,是連續第五周上升。

港股和A股休假期間美股造好,道指和標準普爾500指數連升三周,上周升幅分別為1.8%和2.5%。納指更連升四周,周升幅達到4.3%。上周公布的美國經濟數據大部分優於市場預期。其中,第四季度經濟增長按季由前一季增長百分之3.2,放緩至增長2.9%,但高於市場預期的增長百分之2.6%,主要受消費開支增加帶動.另一方面,聯儲局關注的通脹指標個人消費開支PCE物價指數,去年第4季升幅由前一季的4.8%放緩至3.2%,顯示聯儲局加息抗擊高通脹的舉措起到效用。所以,現時市場估計聯儲局今月僅將加息四分一厘的機會率達到98%。

企業盈利方面,到上周五為止,標普500指數成份股當中已有143家公布了去年第四季度業績,業績好於預期的佔比達到67.8%,略高於66%的長期平均值。雖然有部分企業開始裁員,但對美國就業市場未有構成重大影響。美國上星期首次申領失業救濟人數按周減少6千人至到18萬6千人,比市場預期的20萬5千人為少,是去年4月以來最低,並且連續兩周少於20萬人,反映美國就業市場仍然強勁。

說回港股,從技術走勢看,恆指仍具上升動力,有望挑戰22900-23000。不過,仍看A股假後表現和聯儲局的議息決定和會後聲明,恆指回落支持看22300。


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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