Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補去年7月的下跌裂口

Monday, January 9, 2023 Views2334

港股2023年有個良好開局,恆指在恆指三上周成功上越20000點,並收復250天線,周四最高見到21396,周五收報20992,相對前周上升了1211點,升幅達6.1%,為連續第三周上升,同時亦為1999年以來最佳開局的一周.國指亦連升三周,上周升幅為6.5%.科指全周上升7.3%,為連續第二周上升.

A股方面,上周上證綜指和深證成指分別上周升2.2%和3.2%.受疫情防控措施優化調整、感染病例增加帶來的短期衝擊影響,12月份財新中國製造業採購經理指數(PMI)較11月份回落0.4點至49,不但降至近3個月以來最低,也是連續第5個月處於收縮區,走勢與國家統計局公布的製造業PMI一致.不過,12月份財新中國服務業PMI卻較11月份上升1.3點至48,好於市場預期,反映服務業邊際好轉程度大於製造業下降幅度.同時,服務業經營預期指數更反彈至2021年8月以來最高,反映防疫政策優化令服務業市場信心回升.另一方面,有報道指監管部門計畫階段性放寬針對房企的「三道紅線」考核標準,包括延長試點過渡期和放鬆槓桿限制等,亦為股市特別是房地產板塊帶來支持.

美股方面,受到利好的經濟數據支持,道指和標準普爾500指數上周均上升1.5%,而納指則上升1%.美國去年12月非農就業職位新增22.3萬個,多於市場預期的20.2萬個,反映美國勞工市場維持強勁,而時薪按年增幅僅4.6%,預示通脹壓力減緩,紓緩加息壓力.市場將關注本周四公布的12月份消費物價指數,對聯儲局2月議息決定或有一定啟示.

說回港股,恆指重越20000點,並成功收復250天線,下一目標為補回去年7月22日遺留的下跌裂口,該下跌裂口闊144點,介於21615和21471之間.不過,恆指日線圖在上周四和周五均呈現陰燭,顯示短期有需要先作整固.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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